Or should that be “fragmegration”, James Rosenau’s coinage which links fragmentation with the inevitable integration that comes with globalization?
- Passport reports the latest on Belgium’s political crisis, which threatens to split the bicultural state. Miss Belgium, a Czech immigrant, sparked anger when it was revealed that she could not speak Dutch.
- Bolivia (Passport again) is facing a constitutional crisis as four gas-rich provinces attempt to declare autonomy, in order to free themselves from leftist President Morales’ demands. Not so long ago, Bolivia suffered coup after coup as different factions struggled for control – it is now clear that people-power rules, as in many other Latin American nations, and crowds on the streets with blockades and riots can change governments more effectively than the military. Will this struggle end in the streets, or will Bolivia produce the next Kosovo?
- Kosovo of course is well on its way to becoming the world’s newest independent state, but fear of the precedent this could set for other separatist movements has resulted in muted support from regional powers (via Passport, again):
How the situation plays out — and how the troika respond to it — will be monitored closely by breakaway regions from Kurdistan to Basque Country, who hope that if the West recognizes Kosovo, it will provide a precedent for their own independence struggles. Watching with particular interest are those involved in the “frozen conflicts” of the post-Soviet region. Vladimir Putin has mused mischievously, “If people believe that Kosovo can be granted full independence, why then should we deny it to Abkhazia and South Ossetia?” Both are breakaway regions of Georgia supported by Russia. South Ossetian and Abkhazian leaders have already signaled their intention to use the “Kosovo precedent,” and senior Georgian officials have voiced fears about “the misuse of Kosovo.” The breakaway regions of Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh are eying developments in Kosovo as well.
As with the decline of the nation-state, this sort of fragmentation is one of the most important trends in world politics. And it will come to New Zealand eventually. We have already, in recent months, seen the police dismantle an armed network apparently training for guerrilla warfare with the aim of declaring an autonomous nation in the Tuhoe tribal areas of the East Coast.
UPDATE: A group of Lakota have apparently declared independence from the United States and withdrawn from all federal treaties. Interesting discussion at Soob.
