This was my first guest post at Coming Anarchy, for the new Oceania Day series. Hopefully this marks the start /#comment-376197of a fruitful collaboration between me, the Strategist, Younghusband, Curzon and Chirol. Cheers guys!

The Strategist posted last week on conflict in Melanesia, a region within Oceania alongside Micronesia and Polynesia. To keep this series in context, we need to define these sub-regions, as they have distinct security concerns and challenges, as well as widely varying cultures and geography.

The Pacific contains up to 30,000 small islands. These can (broadly) be divided culturally into three regions: Micronesia (“small islands”), Polynesia (“many islands”) and Melanesia (“black islands”).

• Micronesia includes the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Guam, the Northern Marianas, Palau, and the Marshall Islands. Most islands here are low coral atolls. The dominant external power is the United States, and they last suffered political violence in the 1980s (in Palau). The region is strategically important due to the presence of US military forces, and as such could be drawn into any conflict with China. China has increased its diplomatic involvement here, even more so than elsewhere in the Pacific.
• Polynesia extends from Hawaii to Easter Island to New Zealand in a rough triangle. Geographically, this is an enormous and diverse area including all island types: continental islands, volcanic islands and coral atolls. Major powers include the US, France and New Zealand, while Chile and Britain also possess some small islands. New Zealand is by far the largest country in Polynesia, and is home to hundreds of thousands of Polynesians from the other islands. Important security issues include environmental damage and overcrowding, economic stagnation, opposition to French colonialism, increasing Chinese influence, corruption and democracy.
• Melanesia faces the most serious internal security problems, which were covered last Oceania Day. It consists of several ethnically and tribally divided countries covering hundreds of large, mountainous islands. Papua New Guinea is the most ethnically diverse country in the world, with a population greater than all the other Pacific islands put together. France, Australia and Indonesia are major external powers. This area includes East Timor, the 20th worst failed state according to the Foreign Policy Failed States Index, while the Solomon Islands (30th), Papua New Guinea (52nd) and Indonesia (55th) also feature on the list. Issues here include resource conflict, civil/military relations, the clash between traditional and modern governance, street gangs, and ethnic conflict.

After 1945, the Pacific was almost entirely peaceful. Several territories were granted independence, and others made the transition to democracy. Foreign aid kept the Soviets out, and resulted in some economic growth. But by the 1980s, it was clear that the region was no longer entirely peaceful. Conflict in Vanuatu and New Caledonia, political violence in Palau and two military coups in Fiji resulted in growing concern in the region. Democracy appeared to be weakening, and one academic warned of “Africanisation,” forecasting a dark future for Oceania.

The geo-strategic environment has heated up as well, as Western dominance is challenged by aggressive Chinese diplomacy. Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand are increasingly concerned with maintaining security in their Pacific backyard, fearing an influx of refugees, transnational crime and even terrorism from the “arc of instability”.

Tune in next week for a more detailed look at the terms “Arc of Instability” and “Africanisation of the South Pacific.”

Posted by Phil on Thursday, June 28th, 2007 at 2:00 am.