Since 1945, the number of conflicts – particularly internal conflicts – has been increasing (see the graph on the right, from R.J. Rummel). But world conflicts, and the number of people killed in conflict, peaked in the mid-1990s. Since then there has been a decline in casualties of war, for various reasons – mostly because the Cold War held many conflicts in an artificial stability, so when the Soviet Union collapsed, dozens of civil wars around the world erupted. The decline in casualties also reflects the declining role of the state in warfare, and the reduced willingness of nation-states to sustain casualties. Conflicts started to decline in the mid-90s, with a sharp drop in 2002 as the number of major wars dropped from 11 to 5 (Eriksson et. al., Journal of International Peace Research). Happily, the number of genocides decreased as well: from Rwanda, Bosnia etc, to just one in Darfur.
But in 2006, the number of world conflicts started to increase again. November 2006 was the worst month since the International Crisis Group’s CrisisWatch newsletter began in , 14 conflicts deteriorated in November, compared to just two improved situations. In December, ten conflicts deteriorated, and just one improved. January 2007: seven and two. February: six conflicts got worse, two got better. If we take the last four months together, remove duplicates, and allow deterioration and improvement in the same country to cancel out, that’s 28 conflicts getting worse, and just 5 improving. The conflict in Somalia deteriorated for 3 months, two of the improved conflicts immediately deteriorated, and 8 other conflicts deteriorated for two conscecutive months.
That wasn’t supposed to happen – the end of the Cold War was widely expected to bring about a new era of international cooperation, where the UN had the legitimacy and the ability to end conflicts with negotiation, mediation and peacekeeping. What happened?
The increase in internal conflicts is a graphic illustration of the decline of state power. Most of these conflicts are caused by a multitude of small groups, many involved in terrorism and organized crime. The age of large scale conflict is over, and we have entered the age of new wars – the fourth generation. These conflicts are far more complex and difficult to resolve than other types of war, due to their economic dynamics and the multitude of actors. Fortunately, though, terrorist tactics and small-scale attacks cause comparatively few casualties. Until non-state groups get access to effective WMD, the number of casualties in war will probably continue to decline.
