It’s always worrying when something like this happens – a direct attack on the connections between two nuclear-armed rivals. Attacks on India seem to be increasing in frequency as well as severity.

This latest attack appears to have used simple incendiary devices rather than high explosive, but to deadly effect (at least 64 killed, mostly Pakistani). The crude nature of the bombs suggests the responsibility of a small group, not state-supported (as many in India will argue) and it could also imply that Hindu extremists (perhaps breakaways from the Bajrang Dal youth organization?), wanting to increase tension with Pakistan, are responsible.

UPDATE: There was a car bombing in Baghdad that killed more than 60 people today, as well, but I guess the media consider that normal. There were also waves of simultaneous bombings recently in Algeria and Thailand, and a courtroom bombing in Pakistan, not to mention smaller bombings in Afghanistan, St. Petersburg, Mogadishu, Uganda and even an ineffective mortar attack on US forces in Japan. How did we get to the stage where that level of world terrorism is nothing out of the ordinary?

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20 Responses to “India/Pakistan train bombing”

It’s always very interesting how media attention is distributed. What is your opinion, by the way, about the Muslim insurgency in south Thailand? There was some discussion in last month’s issue of the Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security about their operational strengths and capabilities.

Also, thanks for the link add.

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Cheers A.E! I finally found a copy of the article you suggest (“Thailand’s Time Bomb” by Eric Flis, right?).

I agree with Flis’ conclusion that attacks on tourist spots are possible. The New Years bombings targeted tourists, and may have been the first Bangkok attack by the insurgency – the military leaders blamed supporters of the deposed PM, but they would, wouldn’t they? In my opinion the greatest asset of the Thai insurgents is their anonymity. No-one knows for sure who they are, or who is supporting them. But the sophisticated attacks – cellphone detonators, simultaneous bombings – suggest support and training from Filipino and Indonesian extremists, probably over the Malaysian border.

Did you hear about the recent, and bloody, counter-terror raids in Poso, Indonesia? It seems JI is getting back into gear, with hundreds willing to fight for them. Things are heating up in SE Asia…

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Yes, it was the Flis article. Several of my friends were planning to vacation in Thailand a month ago–thank God they had the sense to listen to my warnings on the subject.

I’ve heard about the Indonesian raids. JI is back on the offensive, again. The International Crisis Group report on it is very chilling.

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[...] Meanwhile, Pacific Empire reminds us that we’re increasingly numb to acts of terrorism and the death of people. There was a car bombing in Baghdad that killed more than 60 people today, as well, but I guess the media consider that normal. There were also waves of simultaneous bombings recently in Algeria and Thailand, and a courtroom bombing in Pakistan, not to mention smaller bombings in Afghanistan, St. Petersburg, Mogadishu, Uganda and even an ineffective mortar attack on US forces in Japan. How did we get to the stage where that level of world terrorism is nothing out of the ordinary? [...]

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Violence by Malay separatists in the southern Thai provinces, directed against Thai government forces, has long been a problem, flaring up and dying down.

My father travelled there in the mid-1960s. It must have been pretty wild at the time, for he said to me later that there were four types that you had to watch out for: Malay separatists; the remnants of Chinese communist terrorists (who were hiding out in jungle after the Malayan Emergency); run of the mill bandits; and Thai cops moonlighting as bandits. I was there in the late 1980s, and it was very quiet – that was when the Thai beach/island craze was getting into full swing.

It will be interesting to see if and how this develops, particularly, as you say, the connections with Islamic terrorists in Indonesia and Mindanao.

A.E – do you have a link to that Journal of Counterterrorism article you mentioned?

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Unfortunately not. The Journal of Counterterrorism doesn’t have links to back issues. However, I could scan the article and email it you.

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Hey, a link from Global Voices! Cool.

Strategist: Check your email :-) Interesting anecdote. Sounds like the situation closely parallels the southern Philippines, with multifaceted groups and centuries-old grievances.

You know, expansion of SE Asia Islamic extremism through Singapore, Brunei, East Timor and PNG could be very interesting, too. There may be plenty of opportunities left for them. Also, it seems to thrive where there is a roughly 50/50 Muslim-Christian population. Where else does that criterion apply?

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Phil – thanks for the article.

You’re right – one of the fascinating things about SE Asia is a prevalence of low-level conflict, which flares up and dies down, right across the archipelago – Aceh, southern Thailand, Mindanao and Sulu, Sulawesi, Ambon and so on, often based loosely around religion, either Christian vs Muslim, or Islam vs secular government (Aceh). The internal Jakarta-sponsored migration of Muslims from Java and Sumatra to Christian islands (in the Nusa Tenggara, Timor and Irian), known as transmigrasi, also caused a lot of friction.

Having spent some time in PNG and Melanesia, I personally don’t think that Islam will take hold unless it is carried there by mass migration. (Christianity, and older beliefs are deep-rooted.) But such a movement of peoples is not implausible, particularly if you take a long view of matters.

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Very true – Jakarta’s internal migration policies fuelling tension. If violent militias form in the Timor and Papua border areas, they could start mounting crossover raids (like in 1999-2000 Timor). Instability in Timor and PNG itself could cause refugee flows in the other direction, too. I guess its Australia’s role to prevent that.

I’d be interested to see more of your ideas on this (from the POV of someone who’s spent time in Melanesia).

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“like in 1999-2000 Timor” – yes, and perhaps ‘Confrontation’ (Borneo) in the mid-1960s?

Re. Melanesia, I’m very interested to see if Chinese interest is growing. In the 1990s Beijing was generally only interested in the Melanesian ‘states’ in relation to the ‘One China’ policy. Now, with China’s thirst for oil, gas and minerals, which is playing out in Africa, Beijing may have other, more substantive, interests in this part of the world.

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Yes. I’ll be posting on that in the weekend, actually – the potential for Bougainville-style resource wars. China does have some mines in the region and by all accounts the workers are treated very poorly. Also in Sudan a lot of the oil workers are apparently PLA or ex PLA, and assist the Sudanese in keeping control (brutally, needless to say). Would they risk something similar in Melanesia?..

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The workers actually rioted. It was a huge PR disaster for the Chinese.

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Re “Would they risk something similar in Melanesia?”.

Not sure – I think that CRA’s experience at Panguna probably taught everyone a valuable lesson, along with the problems that mining companies have faced on Guadalcanal, Lihir and at Ok Tedi. And the Chinese would have to think about the Australian reaction.

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I am glad to see that people have read and are discussing the article I recently wrote for the Jounal of Counter Terrorism.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for the south of Thailand.

Just recently (past couple of days)there has been an increase in violent attacks and a security crackdown by the Thai government.

With regards to the New Years Eve attacks in Thailand. At first glance one would think it was the insurgents however one thing more than likely excludes them. That is, warnings preceeded the bombings, this is not an MO of terrorists or insurgents.

Thier aim is to kill as many as possible in order to create fear.

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Thanks for the comment Eric – great to see you here. That’s a good point about the New Years Eve attack, but surely it depends on the type of insurgent group? Also, don’t the Thai insurgents use warning calls sometimes to spread fear and disruption?

I hope you keep reading the site and perhaps comment on other situations (maybe East Timor?). And I’ll keep an eye out for future articles of yours.

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Phil,

I have not come accross any indications that groups such as Bersatu give prior warnings before an attack.

In 2006 there was a string of about 12 coordinated attacks carried out by Bersatu tageting ATM machines, again no warnings were issue before the bombs were detonated.

So I guess in answer to your question, the insurgent groups that are active (most active like Bersatu) in Thailand have not issued warnings in the past.

Also keep in mind there has been an escalation in the vilence of attacks. Buhdist’s have in recent months been hacked to death, decapitated etc. by the Muslim extremists.

So with this escalation it is unlikely they would issue warnings, rather they would want to kill as many as possible.

I will try and frequent your site, seems like a good forum.

I have an article I recently wrote on Samoa’s national security, not just from terrorism but from pandemics etc.

If you like I can post it for people to read?

Eric

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OK. All good points. In that case it doesn’t seem like insurgent groups would have carried out that bombing.

I wrote a short post last year, “Is Samoa Next?” which caused some controversy. The comments were interesting to see the reasoning of defenders of Samoa’s unique and illiberal system. I’m very interested to see your article on Samoa, could I put it up as a guest post?

Cheers,
Phil

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Phil,

I’ll bet it stirred some controversy. Particularly from Samoan’s, who are extremely protective of thier countries reputation.

I’ll have aread of your post as well.

I would be more than happy to have you post my article on Samoa. Where would you like me to email it too?

Eric

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Hey Eric,
Just email it to philip.howison (at) gmail.com.
Cheers :-)

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Hi Phil,

You have mail mate.

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Something to say?