Comments on: North Korea to Denuclearize, and Everybody Loves Chris

By: libertyscott

libertyscott — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 12:09:41 +0000

I know the risks of collapse, but a likely collapse scenario is a new central administration that embarks on radical reforms. The regime was propped up in the early 90s on promises it would halt nuclear activity – now it has nuclear weapons. What next?

The openness in North Korea is very much on the borders, my favourite idea is to send in thousands of hand crank powered radios via air with small parachutes, already tuned into South Korean radio. The best thing for North Korea is to open up for more investment, but the Kim cult must be dismantled to – for that Kim Jong Il must die.

By: Phil

Phil — Tue, 20 Feb 2007 00:32:27 +0000

Scott: I’m not sure that letting the regime collapse would be a good idea, in the context of the NE Asia power balance. Robert D. Kaplan has the best analysis of that possibility – “When Korea Falls”.

Of course I agree about the unmitigated evil of the regime, but realpolitik leaves few options open for the US. Halting the nuclear program and giving them some fuel oil and food might be the best option.

In the long run, more cellphones and laptops are getting into the DPRK, and more refugees are escaping via China (using cellphones to coordinate escapes). The Kims can’t hide from the rest of the world forever – that sort of technology promotes transparency. In fact before too long we might see cellphone photos from inside the DPRK and we’ll finally see images of the prison camps…

By: libertyscott

libertyscott — Mon, 19 Feb 2007 10:11:23 +0000

North Korea cannot be trusted. It will continue to enrich plutonium until the inspectors come, it will then hide it – along with the weapons it now has. It does not have to destroy any of its weapons, and it knows if things don’t go its way it can spit the dummy, evict inspectors and do another test.

North Korea is one of the biggest liars on the international stage, it works in such false premises as to be beyond belief.

This will do nothing for the 100,000s of men, women and children in gulags – will keep the army and party well fed, as there is no pressure to reform at all. The chance was there to let this damned regime fall, the Japan and US sanctions were biting bad, it hurt – now the bastards can keep partying on the corpses of the people, like they have for the last 60 years.

The media do a great job ignoring the death toll there and the reasons for it – Iraq is open and transparent and the US is there. North Korea’s constant murder and abuse of its citizens gets ignored because there aren’t enough images of it, and Fisk would get locked up if he tried to report from it.

By: subadei

subadei — Thu, 15 Feb 2007 04:06:45 +0000

Indeed, China seems to be the keystone, in addition the excellence of Hill and the perseverance of an otherwise maligned US administration in holding to the six party talks.
I wonder how much effect Shinzo’s nationalism had on China’s decision to lean on Dear Leader?

At any rate, thanks for the blogroll heads up, too kind!

By: Phil

Phil — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 22:37:04 +0000

Why not? It seems like the aid is more important to them at the moment than sabre-rattling, especially since the fizzle of their nuclear test. And it seems like the Chinese have applied a lot of subtle pressure (more on that in Barnett’s post).

Of course, misperceptions and groupthink may prevail in Pyongyang. Kim Jong-Il can hardly be considered a rational actor. But I predict that this deal will prevail in the short to medium term.

BTW, I added you to the blogroll.

By: subadei

subadei — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 20:16:41 +0000

Do you think Pyongyang will hold up their end of the bargain?