Martin van Creveld:
“Once the legal monopoly of armed force, long claimed by the state, is wrested out of its hands, existing distinctions between war and crime will break down much as is already the case today in . . . Lebanon, Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Peru, or Colombia.”
Continuing the theme of the previous post, here are some more supporting examples.
- Catania football riots, in which an Italian policeman was killed – possibly by an improvised explosive device.
- “Low grade wars” (John Robb) in Latin America: armed assaults on police stations in Mexico prompting evacuations, and police/paramilitary collusion in the Rio favelas.
- Grenade attack on Chinese in Siberia. Presumably a nationalistic backlash, like the deadly market bombing which targeted immigrants in Moscow.
- And the letter bomb campaign in the UK. Some bombs appear to be targeting motoring fines; possibly a personal grudge, and the others may be linked to animal-rights extremists.
This is the security threat of the future. Crime networks, disorganised or small groups, or individuals with grudges, but with increasing ability to coordinate their activity and cause destruction or mayhem. Not only the distinction between war and crime, but, at the smaller scale, the distinction between terrorism and crime will be blurred.
Lebanon, Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Peru or Colombia?
How about adding France to that list?
Left by Callum on February 9th, 2007