Update
Bainimarama has, according to Qarase, extended the deadline for Qarase to comply further with his demands to noon Monday (or 1 pm in NZ). The deadline today passed without incident, as Bainimarama (pictured, left) was attending a police vs. army rugby game – an epic battle, which ended with the police retaining their title 17-15. That must have been a tense encounter…
Earlier, troops conducted threatening “exercises,” marching through Suva and firing mortars and flares into the harbour. They say they are ready to repel any foreign intervention, although it is unknown how united the military really is in support of Bainimarama.
Meanwhile, foreign ministers from the Pacific Forum countries are meeting in Sydney. And Australia has troops, helicopters and warships off Fiji still, ready to secure the High Commission and evacuate nationals if necessary. Tragically, an Australian SAS soldier and the pilot pilot were killed in a Blackhawk crash yesterday, and several others were injured.
Background
I’ve been reading some books about Fiji’s last coup, in 2000, and associated events including riots and the later mutiny against Bainimarama at the Queen Elizabeth Barracks.
What surprised me was just how bad it was. It wasn’t a bloodless coup, in fact it caused chaos and conflict which lasted months, and caused 16 deaths, many injuries and economic damage of over a billion dollars. It also resulted in quite a few Indo-Fijian IDPs, and many Indo-Fijians fled to New Zealand as a result of the arson, beating and rape which took place. The army split, there was a constitutional crisis, and bandits roamed the countryside. That sort of collapse of authority is definitely a possibility now, in my opinion. The trouble is that if a full collapse occurs, it will be very difficult for any group to restore order.
Significant actors at the time included the army’s Counter-Revolutionary Warfare Unit, modelled on the SAS (ironically, the main armed rebel group), the rebel “Dogs of War” led by Fijian nationalists, retired ex-SAS Major Ligairi and failed businessman George Speight, the army (most of which sided with Bainimarama rather than Speight’s rebels), the Great Council of Chiefs, the courts, the President Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara (deposed by Bainimarama and replaced with Ratu Josefa Iloilo), Laisenia Qarase (installed as PM by Bainimarama), and various shadowy figures accused of backing the coup. A coup attempt now could cause an even more complex battle for power.
Links
- Mark Holland of Blognor Regis commented earlier. His blog has some good coverage and links – very informative.
- Here is a Fiji Times editorial about the current crisis.
- Wikipedia: Fiji crisis of 2005-2006
- Wikipedia: Fiji coup of 2000
- Pacific Empire: Coup in Fiji? (previous post of mine, with some more analysis)
