• “Terror suspect linked to Kiribati flight-school plot, says FBI” (NZ Herald)

Arguments for increased engagement and intervention in the Pacific, post-2001, especially in Australia, have often cited terrorism as a key risk. For example:

The attack on the United States on 11 September 2001 prompted many Pacific countries to reassess their vulnerability to terrorism and other cross-border crime. With modern communications links the relative remoteness of the Pacific does not provide immunity from these global problems. Transnational crime works across borders and focuses on the most vulnerable states. (“Key Pacific Issues – Security,” MFAT)

Transnational crime is a more obvious threat. Australia already gets boat people from South-East Asia, and there is some Aus-PNG smuggling across the Torres Strait. Also, some Pacific islands have been implicated in money laundering schemes, and governments like Fiji and Tonga have fallen victim to foreign con-men. As for terrorism, some incidents during the conflicts in New Caledonia and Bougainville in the 80s and 90s respectively might qualify as terrorism. But the only recent connection I can think of was the attempted transfer of 50 tons of munitions to Gaza via a freighter with a Tongan flag-of-convenience.

The worry, though, is that a Pacific state could be co-opted or subverted with little more than a couple of hundred weapons or tens of millions in USD. Terrorist groups, might, in the future, consider that a good deal. This attempt to set up a flight school on an remote island in Kiribati might just be the first such attempt, strengthening the case for greater attention to be paid to our smaller neighbours.

Here’s an article about a Guantanamo-style outpost which Australia is building on Christmas Island, near Java, to house up to 800 boat people. Given the reduced numbers of refugees since the Tampa debacle, this may reflect a desire to plan for potential terrorist threats by at least having the capacity to house hundreds of suspects in a remote Alcatraz. But that also illustrates the disadvantage of using Pacific islands as terror bases – they are hard to escape. Until they build mini-subs, I doubt terrorists will be interested in hiding out on small islands.

Posted by Phil on Friday, November 17th, 2006 at 12:42 am.