But first, from FP Passport: “Ignorance is Bliss.” America, you have a problem.
Only in the United States are Annie Leibovitz photos considered more important than the dire situation in Afghanistan…
Foreign Policy’s Passport blog also picks up on one of John Robb’s recent posts on Global Guerrillas, “Taking Out Musharraf.” Pakistan recently suffered a nationwide power outage, possibly as a result of sabotage by tribal insurgents, and it contributed to rumours that President Musharraf – who came to power in a coup – had been deposed in another coup. Musharraf is still nominally in power, but the Baloch insurgency, the peace deal with the Al-Qaeda-harbouring tribes of Waziristan and the export of 2500 Taliban and AQ militants all suggest that he has little real control of the situation.
Here are a few of the reasons why the collapse of Pakistan would be catastrophic:
- Terrorism. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban maintain a strong presence in the region. Pakistani intelligence (ISI) has been linked to terrorism and insurgency in India, especially in Kashmir. The Taliban attack Afghanistan from bases in Waziristan and Balochistan, and homegrown terrorists in the UK were trained in Pakistan.
- Nuclear weapons. They could be captured by Iran, fired at India by military hard-liners, exported for profit by military personnel, or supplied to Islamist terrorists. US intervention would be necessary to secure them.
- Trade: A proposed gas pipeline between Iran, Pakistan and India would exacerbate regional tensions in the event of conflict. The new Chinese port at Gwadar in Balochistan has already contributed to violence, but if Chinese naval assets were threatened, China might be tempted to intervene.
- Sectarian, ethnic and tribal tensions: All have flared up in recent years and promise to make any collapse of central control vicious and bloody, probably involving ethnic cleansing and massive refugee flows.
According to Robb, the collapse begins with infrastructure disruption. Pipelines, telecommunications, electricity, water, railways – all have been targets in Balochistan. Continuing the process throughout Pakistan is the next step…
