Tongan protestors, courtesy of Planet-Tonga.com. More photos here.

King Taufa’ahau Tupou IV was buried yesterday, as part of a month of official mourning, including lavish feasts, countless gifts and a blend of local and Western traditions. Here are some media analyses about the death of King Taufa’ahau Tupou IV: NZ Herald: A far-sighted monarch, Stuff: Eccentric bachelor to rule Tonga, and Stuff: Tonga’s peace depends on new king. And from the blogosphere, No Right Turn: Hope for change in Tonga? and Not PC: The self-imposed prison of tradition.

Personally, I disagree with Wanganui Mayor Michael Laws who called the late king a “brown slug,” refusing to lower Wanganui’s flag to half-mast. The king was autocratic, yes. But I still have a lot of sympathy for those Tongans for whom the monarchy represents the proud independence of Tongan culture, and it is for their sake that I hope for a peaceful transition to democratic, parliamentary monarchy. I am actually the only one in my family who didn’t live in Tonga – I was born just after Dad finished 2 years teaching physics at Tonga High. I visited Tonga a few years ago though, and really enjoyed the trip, although seeing, first-hand, Tongans living in rusty iron shacks in the dump, surrounded by such natural beauty was heart-rending – and all the more so because the palaces of the kings and nobles were so ostentatious.

Kalafi Moala is a courageous Tongan journalist who spent time in jail after criticising the government in his independent newspaper, Taimi O Tonga. Moala wrote a very interesting book about his experience, Island Kingdom Strikes Back. He warned:

Tonga has ended up with a society more corrupt than ever. The social problems of alcohol, drugs, and youth suicides have reached epidemic proportions… And there are grave problems of teenage pregnancies, broken homes, teenage prostitution, child pornography, increasing unemployment, criminal activity among Tongan communities at home and overseas.

The key question, in my opinion, is not whether democratisation will occur, but whether the process will be violent. Ben Reilly, in his article “The Africanisation of the South Pacific” paints a pessimistic picture of weak states, small-arms, coups and ethnic struggles over natural resources. He points to World Bank research by Paul Collier to back up this depressing vision. Collier uses statistics in an attempt to predict civil wars – according to his study, the exporters of unprocessed commodities face afar higher risk of civil war, especially if they also have slow economic growth, a large diaspora and many unemployed young men. These are all factors in Tonga. And indeed, in some of the protests this year and last year, a few buildings were burned or otherwise vandalised, and some of the violence was attributed to youths returning from the diaspora in the US. But Colliers work ignores some crucial variables – the type of resource, for example. Drugs, oil and diamonds are often linked to conflict. Not so coconuts or vanilla. (See Michael Ross for an interesting classification of resources related to conflict). There are also some more practical issues including the lack of mountainous areas for rebels to hide, the relative lack of weapons, and the difficulty of smuggling anything in or out of a remote island group. Full-scale civil war is unlikely, if not impossible.

What other forms could violence take? Riots? As previously mentioned, there have already been some incidents of arson and small riots. So it’s a possibility, but I should note that conservative Tongan culture seems to disapprove of such action, and indeed many Tongans blamed the arsons on young Tongan-Americans. A military coup, Fiji-style? I wouldn’t rule it out, but the small Tongan military – it has an rusting Vietnam-era landing craft which could transport the entire Royal Tongan Marines – has shown no sign of an interest in politics. I think that if the eccentric and condescending new king doesn’t see the writing on the wall for monarchical rule – and he has already taken positive steps – we will see nothing more violent than a “people-power” or “colour” revolution. I would be very surprised if the Tongan military fires on unarmed demonstrators. But as with the American Revolution centuries before, the real revolution was in the hearts and minds of the Tongan people – a direct result of globalization which has made political freedom within the reach of ordinary people the world over.

On the other hand, Paul Collier’s work is still partly valid. If the economy, including inequality, can’t be sorted out – and diversified, with more light industry and tourism – Tonga’s young democracy will continue to be corrupt and unstable. The weakness of the state will mean that criminal networks will continue to operate out of Tonga, in any case. But as long as brave activists like Kalafi Moala can speak out without fear of imprisonment, there is cause for hope. And any government which oppresses its citizens and operates in an unprincipled, corrupt way should take heed…

Posted by Phil on Thursday, September 21st, 2006 at 2:08 am.